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Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos

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Author Info

  • Orlando Gomes

    (Escola Superior de Comunicação Social)

Abstract

Agent heterogeneity has been used in recent economic literature to justify nonlinear dynamics for the time paths of aggregate economic variables. In this paper, the mechanism through which heterogeneous agents leads to chaotic motion is explained. Adding to a system with initial behavior heterogeneity an adaptive learning rule based on discrete choice theory, one is able to encounter a reasonable explanation for nonlinear motion. The adaptive learning / bounded rationality rule is not the only ingredient necessary for the absence of a long run steady state; heterogeneity must also imply that the several behavior possibilities alternate as the best behavioral choice. Only in such circumstances heterogeneity persists and an unpredictable outcome is likely to arise. The paper develops two models. The first is a generic approach that exemplifies how heterogeneity concerning the volatility of two stochastic processes may lead to chaotic motion; the second is a utility maximization setup, where the source of heterogeneity is investment decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series GE, Growth, Math methods with number 0409010.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0409010

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Heterogeneous agents; Bounded rationality; Chaos; Volatility;

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References

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  1. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  2. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1999. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 41-60, February.
  3. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
  4. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 1999. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 1999.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  6. Emilio Barucci, 1999. "Heterogeneous beliefs and learning in forward looking economic models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 453-464.
  7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  8. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 259, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  11. Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October.
  12. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1994. "A model of learning and emulation with artificial adaptive agents," Working Papers 1994-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  15. Marco Casari, 2003. "Does bounded rationality lead to individual heterogeneity? The impact of the experimentation process and of memory constraints," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 583.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  16. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Orlando Gomes, 2012. "Attentiveness cycles: Synchronized behavior and aggregate fluctuations," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 66(3), pages 271-288, October.
  2. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "The Dynamics of Growth and Migrations with Congestion Externalities," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8.

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