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Using genetic algorithms to model the evolution of heterogeneous beliefs

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Author Info
James Bullard
John Duffy

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Abstract

Genetic algorithms have been used by economists to model the process by which a population of heterogeneous agents learn how to optimize a given objective. However, most general equilibrium models in use today presume that agents already know how to optimize. If agents face any uncertainty, it is typically with regard to their expectations about the future. In this paper, we show how a genetic algorithm can be used to model the process by which a population of agents with heterogeneous beliefs learns how to form rational expectation forecasts. We retain the assumption that agents optimally solve their maximization problem at each date given their beliefs at each date. Agents initially lack the ability to form rational expectations forecasts and have, instead, heterogeneous beliefs about the future. Using a genetic algorithm to model the evolution of these beliefs, we find that our population of artificial adaptive agents eventually coordinates their beliefs so as to achieve a rational expectations equilibrium of the model. We also report the results of a number of computational experiments that were performed using our genetic algorithm model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1994-028.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Publication status: Published in Computational Economics, February 1999, 13(1), pp. 41-60
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-028

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Keywords: Econometrics ; Time-series analysis;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Arifovic, Jasmina & Eaton, Curtis, 1995. "Coordination via Genetic Learning," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 181-203, August.
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  2. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectations and Learning Under Alternative Monetary Regimes: An Experimental Approach," Economics Working Papers 37, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  4. repec:fth:simfra:94-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1994. "A model of learning and emulation with artificial adaptive agents," Working Papers 1994-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Duo Wang, 2004. "Statistical Properties of a Heterogeneous Asset Price Model with Time-Varying Second Moment," Research Paper Series 142, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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  3. Windrum,Paul, 1999. "Simulation models of technological innovation: A Review," Research Memoranda 005, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  4. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2005. "Long Memory, Heterogeneity and Trend Chasing," Research Paper Series 148, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning," Research Paper Series 37, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Heterogeneous Case," Research Paper Series 55, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Research Paper Series 84, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Duo Wang, 2004. "A Behavioural Asset Pricing Model with a Time-Varying Second Moment," Research Paper Series 141, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  10. Xue-Zhong He, 2003. "Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach," Research Paper Series 95, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  11. Floortje Alkemade & Han Poutré & Hans Amman, 2006. "Robust Evolutionary Algorithm Design for Socio-economic Simulation," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 355-370, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jie-Shin Lin & Chris Birchenhall, 2000. "Learning And Adaptive Artificial Agents: An Analysis Of Evolutionary Economic Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 327, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jie-Shin Lin, 2005. "Learning in a Network Economy," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 59-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  15. M. Utku Unver, 2001. "Internet Auctions with Artificial Adaptive Agents," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 38, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Shu-Heng Chen & Chia-Hsuan Yeh, 1999. "Evolving Traders and the Faculty of the Business School: A New Architecture of the Artificial Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 613, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2005. "Heterogeneity, Profitability and Autocorrelations," Research Paper Series 147, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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