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Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices

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Author Info
Evans, G W
Honkapohja, Seppo

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Abstract

We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model of McCallum (2001) is not locally stable under learning. In contrast, in the setting of Leeper (1991), different possibilities can arise. We find, in particular, that there are parameter domains for which the fiscal theory solution, in which fiscal variables affect the price level, can be a stable outcome under learning. For other parameter domains, however, the monetarist solution is instead the stable equilibrium.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3564.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3564

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Related research
Keywords: expectations; explosive price paths; fiscal and monetary policy; inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Buiter, Willem H, 1998. "The Young Person's Guide to Neutrality, Price Level Indeterminacy, Interest Rate Pegs and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 1799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. C.A. Sims, 1999. "The Precarious Fiscal Foundations of EMU," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 34, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 2001. "Indeterminacy, bubbles, and the fiscal theory of price level determination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 19-30, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:156-82 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kauko, Karlo, 2002. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Research Discussion Papers 27/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal theories of the price level: the irreconcilable differences," Working Papers 2006-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peik Granlund, 2004. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Finance 0405015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-30, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Railavo , Jukka, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Karlo Kauko, 2004. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Industrial Organization 0405003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Friedman’s money supply rule vs optimal interest rate policy," Macroeconomics 0405002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Granlund , Peik, 2002. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Research Discussion Papers 25/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Railavo, Jukka, 2003. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 34/2003, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  15. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Banco de España Working Papers 0533, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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