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Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability

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Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

After some historical discussion of the rational expectations (RE) solution procedures of John Muth, Alan Walters, and Robert Lucas, this paper considers the relevance for actual economies of issues stemming from the existence of multiple RE equilibria. In all linear models, the minimum state variable (MSV) solution as defined by the author (JME, 1983) is unique by construction. While it might be argued that the MSV solution warrants special status as the bubble-free solution, the focus in this paper is on its adaptive, least-squares learnability by individual agents, as discussed extensively in important recent publications by George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja. Although the MSV solution is learnable and the main alternatives are not, in most standard models, Evans and Honkapohja have stressed an example in which the opposite is true. The present paper shows, however, that parameter values yielding that result are such that the model is not well formulated, in a specified sense (one that avoids implausible discontinuities). More generally, analysis of a pair of prominent univariate specifications, featured by Evans and Honkapohja, shows that the MSV solution is invariably learnable in these structures, if they are well formulated.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9218.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9218

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C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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