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Inflation Determination With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review

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John H. Cochrane

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Abstract

The new-Keynesian, Taylor-rule theory of inflation determination relies on explosive dynamics. By raising interest rates in response to inflation, the Fed does not directly stabilize future inflation. Rather, the Fed threatens hyperinflation, unless inflation jumps to one particular value on each date. However, there is nothing in economics to rule out hyperinflationary or deflationary solutions. Therefore, inflation is just as indeterminate under "active" interest rate targets as it is under standard fixed interest rate targets. Inflation determination requires ingredients beyond an interest-rate policy that follows the Taylor principle.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13409.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13409

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  3. Cogley, Timothy W. & Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 05-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1183-1197, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bassetto, Marco, 2005. "Equilibrium and government commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 79-105, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Identification with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Minford, Patrick & Perugini, Francesco & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2001. "The Observational Equivalence of Taylor Rule and Taylor-Type Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Michael Woodford, 1995. "Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Minford, Patrick & Perugini, Francesco & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2002. "Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 145-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 15234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Identification with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "The Role of "Determinacy" in Monetary Policy Analysis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  4. Minford, Patrick, 2008. "Commentary on Economic Projections and Rules of Thumb for Monetary Policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Sophisticated monetary policies," Working Papers 659, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Patrick Minford, 2008. "Commentary on "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy "," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 331-338. [Downloadable!]
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