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Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model

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Author Info
Eric M. Leeper
Tao Zha

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Abstract

We explore two popular approaches to empirical analysis of monetary policy: the New Keynesian and the identified vector autoregression approaches. Stylized models of private behavior coupled with simple rules describing policy behavior characterize New Keynesian work. Vector autoregressions consist of minimally identified dynamic descriptions of private behavior coupled with a detailed rule for policy behavior. The simplicity of New Keynesian models aids in communication but leaves the models’ implications vulnerable. By relating the New Keynesian models to identified vector autoregressions, we explore the differences and similarities in the two approaches and assess some of the key conclusions to emerge from New Keynesian research.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2000-19.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2000-19

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Keywords: Vector autoregression Monetary policy Forecasting

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  34. Jordi Galí & David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2000. "Technology Shocks and Monetary policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," Banco de España Working Papers 0013, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate
    ," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 03/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Technology shocks, employment, and labor market frictions," Working Paper 2008-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2001. "Nominal versus real wage rigidities: A Bayesian approach," Working Paper 2001-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  10. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  11. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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