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Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis

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Bennett McCallum

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Abstract

This paper discusses four current topics in monetary policy analysis, each of which hinges on the possibility of multiple solutions in rational expectations (RE) models. In three of these cases-involving inflation forecast targeting, the zero-lower bound deflation trap, and the fiscal theory of the price level-analysis based on E-stability and adaptive learnability of the solutions suggests that only one of them is a viable equilibrium candidate. Thus the dangers alleged to prevail, in these cases, are not ones with which actual policymakers need to be concerned. In the case of the Taylor principle, by contrast, policy behavior that violates the principle is genuinely undesirable, since all of the RE equilibria fail to be learnable.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2003-E77.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1359313521

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  5. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," CRSP working papers 479, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Narayana Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
  21. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103. [Downloadable!]
  24. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2007. "Wealth Effects, the Taylor Rule and the Liquidity Trap," CEIS Research Paper 103, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Inflation Determination With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2007. "Two-Pillar Monetary Policy and Bootstrap Expectations," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 282/2007, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. James Bullard, & In-Koo Cho, 2003. "Escapist Policy Rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/38, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal theories of the price level: the irreconcilable differences," Working Papers 2006-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 451-470. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammarioli & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2007. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Lagged Expectations Quickly and Easily," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2008. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. William T. Gavin, 2003. "Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better," Working Papers 2003-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Richard Mash, 2003. "A Note on Simple MSV Solution Methods for Rational Expectations Models of Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2004. "Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy," Working Papers 2004-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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