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Learning about monetary policy rules

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Author Info
James Bullard
Kaushik Mitra

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Abstract

We study macroeconomic systems with forward-looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule. A typical finding in the burgeoning literature in this area is that policymakers should be relatively aggressive in responding to available information about the macroeconomy (more aggressive than they appear to be in reality). A natural question to ask about this result is whether policy responses which are too aggressive might actually destabilize the economy. We use stability under recursive learning a la Evans and Honkapohja 1999a as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context. We find that considering learning can substantially alter the evaluation of model economies in some situations. We also find that a certain type of rule is robustly associated with both determinacy and learnability. This is an active, Taylor-type rule, with only a small positive reaction to variables other than inflation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-001.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2002, 49(6), pp. 1105-29
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-001

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics ; Taylor's rule;

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This item is featured on the following reading lists:
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  2. Top 1‰ items by number of citations weighted by simple impact factors and discounted by age
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  7. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-220, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "How should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 195-259. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "Expectations, Credibility, and Time-Consistent Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 321-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  25. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1993. "Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 169-183, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  33. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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