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Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting

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Michael T. Kiley

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Abstract

This paper compares discretionary monetary policy under two Phillips curves. Previous work uses a Phillips curve consistent with "Neoclassical" models of price adjustment. Sticky price models imply a "New-Keynesian" Phillips curve based on staggered price setting that delivers familiar results on an inflationary bias and inflation contracts. However, the comparison of price level and inflation targeting reveals an output/price stability tradeoff under the New-Keynesian model that does not arise under the Neoclassical specification, illustrating the usefulness of considering the New-Keynesian model. Given the empirical support for the New-Keynesian specification, a stability tradeoff likely exists.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-27.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-27

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Monetary theory;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky individual prices and the dynamics of the general price level," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 261-296, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Price Level Targeting vs Inflation Targeting : A free Lunch?," Papers 614, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, 'Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," CEPR Discussion Papers 1249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David E. Lebow & John M. Roberts & David J. Stockton, 1992. "Economic performance under price stability," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francesco Busato & Alessandro Girardi & Amedeo Argentiero, 2008. "Technology and non-technology shocks in a two-sector economy," ISAE Working Papers 96, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yuen Chi-Wa, 2002. "Openness And The Output-Inflation Tradeoff: Floating Vs. Fixed Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1-26, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Working Paper Series 91, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Frank Smets, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Webb, Bruce, 2006. "Monetary regimes: is there a trade-off between consumption and employment variability?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Viñals, José, 2001. "Monetary Policy Issues in a Low Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 98-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1998. "Tradeoffs between inflation and output-gap variances in an optimizing-agent model," International Finance Discussion Papers 627, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-34. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 21-30. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Nicoletta Batini & Anthony Yates, . "Hybrid inflation and price level targeting," Bank of England working papers 135, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Webb, Bruce, 2005. "Would price-level targeting destabilise the economy?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  19. Malik, Hamza, 2005. "Price Level vs. Nominal Income Targeting: Aggregate Demand Shocks and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
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