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The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models

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Author Info
Michael T. Kiley

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Abstract

Output growth is negatively correlated with inflation, and detrended output is positively correlated with inflation, in the major North American and European economies. In addition, output growth and detrended output lead inflation. I explore the consistency of these correlations with three models of price adjustment: the partial adjustment model, a staggered price setting model, and the P-bar model. The ratio of the variance of supply to demand shocks necessary to match the pattern of output- inflation correlations can be ranked across the three models; the P-Bar model requires the lowest ratio, and the partial adjustment model requires the highest ratio. These results reveal that the recent burst of researchers using the partial adjustment model will find a larger role for supply shocks than alternative models of price rigidity.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 96-33.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-33

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) Productivity Prices

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1979. "A monetary policy ineffectiveness result in a model with a predetermined price level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky individual prices and the dynamics of the general price level," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15, pages 261-296. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Portier, Franck, 1993. "Money, New-Keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1533-1568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rotemberg, Julio J., 1996. "Prices, output, and hours: An empirical analysis based on a sticky price model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 505-533, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jong-Il Kim & Lawrence J. Lau, 1996. "The sources of Asian Pacific economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 448-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," NBER Working Papers 8614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 283-98, May.
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  24. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5, pages 7-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan C. Stockman, 1985. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. James Cover & Paul Pecorino, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1064-1064. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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