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Inflation, nominal interest rates and the variability of output

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  • Chadha, Bankim
  • Tsiddon, Daniel

Abstract

This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a non-linear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 547-573

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:42:y:1998:i:3:p:547-573

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  2. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price- adjustment rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Guy Meredith & Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-31, August.
  10. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  11. Chadha, Binky, 1989. "Is Increased Price Inflexibility Stabilizing?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 481-97, November.
  12. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, July.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1983. "Staggered Contracts and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 235-258 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  16. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
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  18. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  19. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1993. "Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 266-298, June.
  20. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
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Cited by:
  1. Bali, Turan G. & Thurston, Thom B., 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 615-631.
  2. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.

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