Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems
AbstractThis paper attemps to identify, in a framework deliberately stripped of unnecessary technical- ities, some of the basic reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large socioeconomic systems where no agent, or collection of agents, can act to manipulate macroeconomic outcomes. It is shown that if agents are somewhat uncertain about the local stability of the system, and are accordingly ready to extrapolate a large range of regularities (trends) that may show up in past small deviations from equilibrium, including divergent ones, the learning dynamics is locally divergent. On the other hand, if agents are fairly sure of the local stability of the system, and extrapolate only convergent trends out of small past deviations from equilibrium, one may get local stability. This “uncertainty principle” does show up in a wide variety of contexts: smooth or discontin- uous, finite or infinite memory learning rules, error learning, recursive least squares, Bayesian learning.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 1997088.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 1997
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Learning dynamics; convergence to rational expectations; error learning; least squares learning; Bayesian learning;
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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