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Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies

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  • Honkapohja, Seppo
  • Evans, George W.

Abstract

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are observed and suitably incorporated into the policy maker's optimal rule. These strong results extend to the case in which there is simultaneous learning by the policy maker and the private agents. Our findings show the importance of conditioning policy appropriately, not just on fundamentals, but also directly on observed household and firm expectations. -- Eine auf den Fundamentaldaten beruhende Regelbindung der Geldpolitik ohne Selbstverpflichtung, die bei vollkommen rationalen Erwartungen der privaten Akteure optimal wäre, ist instabil, wenn diese Akteure de facto den üblichen Regeln des adaptiven Lernens folgen. Dieses Problem lässt sich dadurch beheben, dass die Erwartungen privater Akteure berücksichtigt und in geeigneter Weise in die optimale Geldpolitik einbezogen werden. Diese eindeutige Schlußfolgerung gilt auch dann, wenn sich der geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger und die privaten Akteure in einem simultanen Lernprozess befinden. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, wie wichtig es ist, die Geldpolitik angemessen zu gestalten und dabei nicht nur die Fundamentaldaten, sondern auch direkt die beobachteten Erwartungen privater Haushalte und Unternehmen zu berücksichtigen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2000,10.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4146

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