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Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis

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Author Info
Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

This paper discusses four current topics in monetary policy analysis, each of which hinges on the possibility of multiple solutions in rational expectations (RE) models. In three of these cases--involving inflation forecast targeting, the zero-lower bound deflation trap, and the fiscal theory of the price level--analysis based on E-stability and adaptive learnability of the solutions suggests that only one of them is a viable equilibrium candidate. Thus the dangers alleged to prevail, in these cases, are not ones with which actual policymakers need to be concerned. In the case of the Taylor principle, by contrast, policy behavior that violates the principle is genuinely undesirable, since all of the RE equilibria fail to be learnable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9837.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9837

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  5. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," CRSP working papers 479, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal theories of the price level: the irreconcilable differences," Working Papers 2006-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Annicchiarico , Barbara & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2009. "Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 13553, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2008. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. James Bullard & In-Koo Cho, 2003. "Escapist policy rules," Working Papers 2002-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. William T. Gavin, 2003. "Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better," Working Papers 2003-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 15234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2008. "Labor market search and interest rate policy," Research Working Paper RWP 08-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  9. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 451-470. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2007. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Lagged Expectations Quickly and Easily," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Richard Mash, 2003. "A Note on Simple MSV Solution Methods for Rational Expectations Models of Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2004. "Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy," Working Papers 2004-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Does Central Bank Transparency Matter for Economic Stability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 176, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2007. "Wealth Effects, the Taylor Rule and the Liquidity Trap," CEIS Research Paper 103, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 25-51. [Downloadable!]
  17. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Inflation Determination With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2007. "Two-Pillar Monetary Policy and Bootstrap Expectations," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 282/2007, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  19. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "The Role of "Determinacy" in Monetary Policy Analysis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  20. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2009. "Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons," MPRA Paper 12650, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammarioli & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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