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Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia

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Author Info
Michael Woodford

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Abstract

This paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions. It shows, in the context of a simple model of optimizing private-sector behavior, that such inertial policy can be optimal. The reason is that small but persistent changes in short-term interest rates in response to shocks allow a larger effect of monetary policy on long rates and hence upon aggregate demand, for a given degree of overall interest-rate variability. The paper also considers two ways of achieving the desirable degree of inertia in the equilibrium responses to shocks. One is by assignment of a loss function that penalizes squared interest-rate changes (despite the fact that interest-rate changes do not affect the true social objective) to a central bank that is then expected to use discretion in the pursuit of the goal. The second is through commitment to an explicit instrument rule, a generalization of the Taylor rule' in which the funds rate is an increasing function of the lagged funds rate, as in estimated Fed reaction functions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7261.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7261

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E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  2. Levine, Paul L, 1991. "Should Rules be Simple?," CEPR Discussion Papers 515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "The optimum quantity of money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1067-1152 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor rules in a limited participation model," Working Paper Series WP-99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  6. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Price Level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-Budget Requirement," Departmental Working Papers 199833, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521441964 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  16. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  19. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
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