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Monetary Policy as a Process of Search

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Author Info
Caplin, Andrew
Leahy, John

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Abstract

Monetary policymakers are uncertain about the state of the economy and learn from the economy's reaction to policy. Private agents, however, anticipate any systematic attempt to incorporate this information into future policy. The authors analyze this feedback in the context of a monetary authority's attempt to stimulate an economy in recession. They show that modest stimuli may prove ineffectual. If small reductions in interest rates are unlikely to promote a response, then they may be followed by further cuts. A vicious circle develops in which the expectation that the policy could fail leads investors to delay investment, thereby promoting failure. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 86 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 689-702
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:86:y:1996:i:4:p:689-702

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  1. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philip Schellekens, 2000. "Caution and conservatism in the making of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 25, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Doyle, Matthew, 2002. "Informational Externalities, Strategic Delay, and the Search for Optimal Policy," Staff General Research Papers 10046, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Brian Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "On the Optimality of Delay in 'Monetary Policy as a Process of Search'," Staff General Research Papers 12503, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, . "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Discussion Papers 00/43, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997. "Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?," Economics, University of Texas at Austin 9701, Center for Applied Research in Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Rosal, Joao Mauricio & Spagat, Michael, 2002. "Structural Uncertainty and Central Bank Conservatism: The Ignorant Should Keep Their Eyes Shut," CEPR Discussion Papers 3568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Miklós Koren, 2000. "Implicit Band within the Announced Exchange Rate Band," Rajk László Szakkollégium Working Papers 5, Rajk László College. [Downloadable!]
  16. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  17. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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