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Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates

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Author Info
Mark W. Watson
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File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1999/fall/pdf/watson.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Quarterly.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
Pages: 71-96
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:1999:i:fall:p:71-96

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Federal funds rate;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Yash P. Mehra, 1996. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-49. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
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  7. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1992. "Information-Aggregation Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 508-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  10. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Papers 52, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. M. Sensier & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth," Econometric Institute Report 219, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," Discussion Papers 08-34, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Alexander L. Wolman, 2006. "Bond price premiums," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 317-336. [Downloadable!]
  10. D.J. van Dijk & D.R. Osborn & M. Sensier, 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Report 282, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Xu Cheng & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1688, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," NBER Working Papers 12671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158. [Downloadable!]
  14. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Robrt G. King & Andre Kurmann, 2002. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates : evidence and implications," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 49-95. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ke-Li Xu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Adaptive Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Time-Varying Variances," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1585R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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