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Abstract

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents?learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0802.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0802

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Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
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Keywords: Imperfect knowledge; learning; interest-rate setting; fluctuations; stability; determinacy.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
• E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2008-01-26 (All new papers)
• NEP-CBA-2008-01-26 (Central Banking)
• NEP-MAC-2008-01-26 (Macroeconomics)
• NEP-MON-2008-01-26 (Monetary Economics)

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