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Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

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Author Info
George Evans ()
Seppo Honkapohja ()

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Abstract

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0802.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0802

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Related research
Keywords: Imperfect knowledge learning interest-rate setting fluctuations stability determinacy.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  28. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  58. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  59. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1165-1165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  60. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-6, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  61. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  62. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  63. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  64. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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