The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria
AbstractThe Lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross-equation restrictions that follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward-looking agents. In this paper, the author argues that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions. He presents an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria, one of which is supported by a process-invariant forecast rule. Immunity to the Lucas critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UCLA Department of Economics in its series UCLA Economics Working Papers with number 551.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 1989
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/
Other versions of this item:
- Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 321-32, April.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1985.
"Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1873, David K. Levine.
- Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 1985. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 433-53, March.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1982. "Comparitive Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," UCLA Economics Working Papers 259, UCLA Department of Economics.
- T. J. Kehoe & D. K. Levine, 1982. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Working papers 312, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983.
"On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
- Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984.
"Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons,"
NBER Working Papers
1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December.
- Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Futia, Carl A, 1982. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 377-408, March.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
- Michael Bruno, 1988. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," NBER Working Papers 2718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tim Kwok).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.