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Robustifying Learnability

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  • Peter von zur Muehlen
  • Robert J. Tetlow

Abstract

In recent years, the learnability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) and determinacy of economic structures have rightfully joined the usual performance criteria among the sought after goals of policy design. And while some contributions to the literature (for example Bullard and Mitra (2001) and Evans and Honkapohja (2002)) have made significant headway in establishing certain features of monetary policy rules that facilitate learning, a comprehensive treatment of policy design for learnability has yet to surface, especially for cases in which agents have potentially misspecified their learning models. This paper provides such a treatment. We argue that since even among professional economists a generally acceptable workhorse model of the economy has not been agreed upon, it is unreasonable to expect private agents to have collective rational expectations. We assume instead that agents have an approximate understanding of the workings of the economy and that their task of learning true reduced forms of the economy is subject to potentially destabilizing errors. We then ask: can a central bank set policy that accounts for learning errors but also succeeds in bounding them in a way that allows eventual learnability of the model, given policy. For different parameterizations of a given policy rule applied to a New Keynesian model, we use structured singular value analysis (from robust control) to find the largest ranges of misspecifications that can be tolerated in a learning model without compromising convergence to an REE. A parallel set of experiments seeks to determine the optimal stance (strong inflation as opposed to strong output stabilization) that allows for the greatest scope of errors in learning without leading to expectational instabilty in cases when the central bank designs both optimal and robust policy rules with commitment. We compare the features of all the rules contemplated in the paper with those that maximize economic performance in the true model, and we measure the performance cost of maximizing learnability under the various conditions mentioned here.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 437.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:437

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Keywords: monetary policy; learning; E-stability; model uncertainty; robustness;

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Cited by:
  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," CDMA Working Paper Series 200802, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Mostafavi, Moeen & Shakouri G., Hamed & Fatehi, Ali-Reza, 2010. "Why the determinacy condition is a weak criterion in rational expectations models," MPRA Paper 28320, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," Economics Series Working Papers 457, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  4. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Working Papers 201366, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Mostafavi, Moeen & Fatehi, Ali-Reza & Shakouri G., Hamed & Von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2011. "A predictive multi-agent approach to model systems with linear rational expectations," MPRA Paper 35351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Dec 2011.
  6. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2009. "The New Keynesian Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 317/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.

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