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Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment

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Author Info
George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Seppo Honkapohja (University of Cambridge)

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Abstract

This is a revised and shortened version of Working Paper 2002-11. Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy. We assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to an RE equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents. A reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private expectations performs particularly well on both counts.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2005-11_Evans_Commitment.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2005-11.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 27 May 2002
Date of revision: 06 Apr 2005
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2005-11

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Related research
Keywords: Commitment interest rate setting adaptive learning stability determinacy

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Carlo Monticelli & Oreste Tristani, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jan Marc Berk & Peter A.G. Vanbergeijk, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 11, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michele Berardi, 2006. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 81, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2005. "Robustifying learnability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2005. "Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 31 May 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jagjit Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "Sunspots and Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza, 2005. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Demand Regimes, Monetary Policy and Equilibrium Determinacy," MPRA Paper 5100, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Joseph Pearlman, 2007. " Is There More than One Way to be E-Stable?," CDMA Working Paper Series 0701, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 597-612. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Richard Dennis & Federico Ravenna, 2007. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 613-626. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  16. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16. [Downloadable!]
  19. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, 2004. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/14, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Andrea Ferrero, 2008. "The advantage of flexible targeting rules," Staff Reports 339, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  21. Tiziana Assenzay & Michele Berardi, 2008. "Learning in a Credit Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 100, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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