Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter

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Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter

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Preston, Bruce

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Bruce Preston

Abstract

This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. In the model considered here, private agents seek to maximize their objectives subject to standard constraints and the restriction of using an econometric model to make inferences about future uncertainty. Because agents solve a multiperiod decision problem, their actions depend on forecasts of macroeconomic conditions many periods into the future, unlike the analysis of Bullard and Mitra (2002) and Evans and Honkapohja (2002). A Taylor rule ensures convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium associated with this policy if the so-called Taylor principle is satisfied. This suggests the Taylor rule to be desirable from the point of view of eliminating instability due to self-fulfilling expectations.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 830.

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Date of creation: 28 Nov 2005
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Central Banking Number 2.Volume 1(2005): pp. 81-126
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:830

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Article
- Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September. [Downloadable!]
Paper
- Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-11-25 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2006-11-25 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2006-11-25 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2006-11-25 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, . "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Discussion Papers 00/43, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, 2004. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/14, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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