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Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

In: Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning

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  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    (Centre for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results for interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications, including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflation, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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This chapter was published in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, , chapter 2, pages 027-076, 2009.

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Cited by:
  1. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 504, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  4. Martin ZUMPE (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113), 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  5. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  6. Eric Schaling & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2013. "Trend Growth and Learning About Monetary Policy Rules in a Two-Block World Economy," Kiel Working Papers 1818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
  8. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Stability under Learning: the Endogenous Growth Problem," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1708, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  9. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2013. "Do We Really Need to Start From Scratch? Economic Theory on Economic Crises," Working Papers 2013-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  10. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Tokuoka, Kiichi, 2013. "Saving response to unemployment of a sibling," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 58-75.
  12. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  13. Chevillon, Guillaume & Massmann, Michael & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2010. "Inference in models with adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 341-351, April.
  14. Mewael Tesfaselassie, 2011. "Trend Growth and Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Kiel Working Papers 1744, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Herro, Nicholas & Murray, James, 2011. "Dynamics of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Impact on the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 30387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  17. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Gabriel DESGRANGES and Stéphane GAUTHIER, 2008. "Stabilizing through Poor Information," THEMA Working Papers 2008-32, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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