Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation
AbstractWhy is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the 1970s? This paper suggests that the United Kingdom, United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story proposed by Tom Sargent in The conquest of American inflation, where the fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to the changing beliefs informing monetary policy. To explain the escape in inflation volatility, we unwind one of Sargent's simplifications and allow the monetary authority to react to some of the shocks in the economy. In this new model, a revised account of recent history is that when the evidence turned against the existence of a long-run inflation-output trade-off in the 1980s there was an escape from high inflation, but the authorities were also persuaded to stop using changes in inflation to offset shocks. Inflation and inflation volatility therefore escaped in tandem. Our analysis also sheds some light on why the escape in inflation occurred at the time it did. Our model, like the Sargent model it derives from, omits the revolution in institutional design and understanding that underpins monetary policy. So the gloomy predictions for the future derived from a literal reading of it are likely to be unfounded.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6483.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-10-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-10-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-10-06 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1993. "Bayesian economists ... Bayesian agents : An alternative approach to optimal learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 355-383, May.
- William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Benefits from U.S. monetary policy experimentation in the days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
- Reis Ricardo, 2003. "Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, September.
- Bruce McGough, 2003.
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
294, Society for Computational Economics.
- In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003.
"Inflation forecast uncertainty,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
- Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty,"
Working Paper Series
0478, European Central Bank.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003.
"The quest for prosperity without inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
- Gerali, Andrea & Lippi, Francesco, 2001.
"On the 'Conquest' of Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rhys Bidder & Kalin Nikolov & Tony Yates, . " Self-confirming Inflation Persistence," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0908, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008.
"Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2008-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
- Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," CDMA Working Paper Series 200802, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013.
"Policy change and learning in the RBC model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Mitra , Kaushik & Evans , George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2011. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Research Discussion Papers 22/2011, Bank of Finland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.