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Learning by Disinflating

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  • Martin Ellison
  • Martin Ellison
  • Alina Barnett

Abstract

Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy.� This paper is especially interested in how a policymaker can themselves learn by disinflating.� The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on the learning of private agents during a disinflation.� We build a model where both the policymaker and private agents learn, and ask what happens if the poicymaker has to disinflate to satisfy a new central bank mandate specifying greater emphasis on inflation stabilisation.� In this case, our results show that inflation may fall dramatically before it gradually rises to its new long run level.� The potential for inflation to undershoot its long run level during a disinflationary episode suggests that caution should be exercised when assessing the success of any change in the policymaker's mandate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 579.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:579

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Keywords: Disinflation; Escape dynamics; Learning; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Working Papers 97002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 1997.
  3. Anamaria Nicolae & Charles Nolan, 2004. "The impact of imperfect credibility in a transition to price stability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 72, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 457-467, 03.
  5. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200946, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  7. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
  8. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2003. "Learning Dynamics and Endogenous Currency Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
  10. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 859-878, 08.
  11. Bruce McGough, 2003. "Shocking Escapes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 294, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Volatile Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 981-993, 06.
  13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  14. Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1008-1013, December.
  15. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 867, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Matthes, Christian & Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Dynare Working Papers 19, CEPREMAP.

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