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Policy change and learning in the RBC model

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  • Mitra, Kaushik
  • Evans, George W.
  • Honkapohja, Seppo

Abstract

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1947-1971

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:10:p:1947-1971

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Taxation; Government spending; Expectations; Permanent policy changes;

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Two papers on policy uncertainty and learning
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-08-27 11:10:04
  2. Policy change and learning in the RBC model
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-11-30 01:39:21
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Cited by:
  1. Emanuel Gasteiger & Shoujian Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201309, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  2. George W. Evans & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "E-stability in the Stochastic Ramsey Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201209, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

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