What's News in Business Cycles
AbstractIn the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our identification approach relies on the fact that forward-looking agents react to anticipated changes in exogenous fundamentals before such changes materialize. It further allows us to distinguish changes in fundamentals by their anticipation horizon. We find that anticipated shocks account for about half of predicted aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment, and employment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8984.
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2012-05-29 (Business Economics)
- NEP-DGE-2012-05-29 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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