Theory ahead of business cycle measurement
AbstractRecent developments in business cycle theory are reviewed. The principal finding is that the growth model, which was developed to account for the secular patterns in important economic aggregates, displays the business cycle phenomena once it incorporates the observed randomness in the rate of technological advance. The amplitudes and serial correlation properties of fluctuations in output and employment that the growth model predicts match those historically experienced in the United States. Further, the model continues to display the growth facts it was developed to explain.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 102.
Date of creation: 1986
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Quarterly Review, Fall 1986
Other versions of this item:
- Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22.
- Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
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RePEc Biblio mentionsAs found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
- > Schools of Economic Thought, Epistemology of Economics > Economic Methodology > Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
- > Macroeconomics > Economic Fluctuations > Real Business Cycle Theory
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