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A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption andLeisure Choice Under Uncertainty

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Author Info
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Lars Peter Hansen
Kenneth J. Singleton

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Abstract

This paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which goods and leisure provide services over time. The implied time non-separability of preferences introduces an endogenous source of dynamics which affects both the co-movements in aggregate compensation and hours worked and the cross-relations between prices and quantities. These cross-relations are examined empirically using post-war monthly U.S. data on quantities, real wages and the real return on the one-month Treasury bill. We find substantial evidence against the overidentifying restrictions. The test results suggest that the orthogonality conditions associated with the representative consumer's intratemporal Euler equation underlie the failure of the model. Additionally, the estimated values of key parameters differ significantly from the values assumed in several studies of real business models. Several possible reasons for these discrepancies are discussed.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1981.

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Date of creation: Jul 1986
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Publication status: published as Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1988.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1981

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E., 1980. "Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12, pages 7-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Card, David, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 761-81, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen, 1991. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," NBER Working Papers 2181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Pollak, Robert A, 1970. "Habit Formation and Dynamic Demand Functions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 745-63, Part I Ju. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Muellbauer, John N J, 1981. "Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 21-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert E. Hall, 1980. "Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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