IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/van/wpaper/0921.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ippei Fujiwara

    (Financial Markets Department, Bank of Japan)

  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Monetary Affairs Department, Bank of Japan)

  • Mototsugu Shintani

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier(2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), and Smets and Wouters (2003, 2007) by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity, and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the U.S. and Japanese economies suggest that (1) news shocks play a relatively more important role in the U.S. than in Japan; (2) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables; and (3) the overall effect of the total factor productivity on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2009. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0921, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0921
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu09-w21.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2004. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 381-395, 04/05.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
    6. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    7. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    8. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    9. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    11. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    12. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Inaba, Masaru, 2012. "Collateral Constraint And News-Driven Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 752-776, November.
    13. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in hours, balanced growth, and the role of technology in the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 459-486.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    16. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    17. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    18. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    19. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-1277, November.
    20. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
    21. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    22. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    23. Robert J. Vigfusson, 2004. "The delayed response to a technology shock: a flexible price explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 810, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    26. Ippei Fujiwara, 2008. "Growth Expectation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-21, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    27. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    28. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2010. "A Note On Growth Expectation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 242-256, April.
    29. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 476-502, December.
    30. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    31. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    32. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
    33. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    34. Ippei Fujiwara & Heedon Kang, 2006. "Expectation Shock Simulation with DYNARE," QM&RBC Codes 163, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles, revised Feb 2008.
    35. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    36. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    37. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Shingo Watanabe, 2006. "Roles of Technology and Nontechnology Shocks in the Business Cycles," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    39. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    40. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    3. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and financial intermediation in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations," MPRA Paper 38986, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2012.
    4. Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Price puzzle in a small open New Keynesian model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-42.
    6. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Stéphane Auray & Paul Gomme & Shen Guo, 2013. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Pigou Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 455-473, May.
    8. Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
    9. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Guo Shen, 2011. "News Shocks and the External Finance Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    12. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Intersectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Comovement, and News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 77-114, February.
    13. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    15. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    16. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    17. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2013. "Financial frictions on capital allocation: A transmission mechanism of TFP fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 683-703.
    18. Ippei Fujiwara, 2008. "Growth Expectation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-21, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Liao, Shian-Yu & Chen, Been-Lon, 2023. "News shocks to investment-specific technology in business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; business cycles; news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.