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Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations

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Author Info
Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

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Abstract

In this paper we show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run -- and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock -- but affects productivity with substantial delay -- and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation we suggest for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. We show that this shock causes a boom in consumption, investment and hours worked that precede productivity growth by a few years. Moreover, we show that this shock explains about 50\% of business cycle fluctuations.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10548.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10548

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," Working Paper Series WP-04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 157-216. [Downloadable!]
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 176-199, April. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2004. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 10518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomics 0412014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hian Teck Hoon & Edmund S. Phelps, 2006. "Effects of Technological Improvement in the Ict-Producing Sector on Business Activity," Discussion Papers 0506-21, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hian Teck Hoon & Edmund S. Phelps, 2004. "Future fiscal and budgetary shocks," Discussion Papers 0405-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Miroslav Misina, 2005. "Risk Perceptions and Attitudes," Working Papers 05-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "Schumpeterian Restructuring," Working Papers 1039, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2006. "On the robust effects of technology shocks on hours worked and output," Economics Working Papers 1013, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Franck Portier, 2006. "Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 12710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Hoon Hian Teck & Edmund S. Phelps, 2006. "ICT-Producing Sector on Business Activity," Working Papers 07-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    Other versions:
  16. Lone E. Christiansen, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data," IMF Working Papers 08/24, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2007. "Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 3889, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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