IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/9624.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Portier, Franck
  • Beaudry, Paul

Abstract

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating its relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be established.

Suggested Citation

  • Portier, Franck & Beaudry, Paul, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 9624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9624
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP9624
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2012. "On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 256-258.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    4. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    5. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 81-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    7. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    9. Patrick Feve & Ahmat Jidoud, 2014. "News Shocks, Information Flows and SVARs," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 113-114, pages 293-307.
    10. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2011. "Testing for Sufficient Information in Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    12. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, May.
    13. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2015. "Factor augmented autoregressive distributed lag models with macroeconomic applications," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-33, CIRANO.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    15. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
    16. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    17. Keith Sill, 2009. "News about the future and economic fluctuations," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 22-33.
    18. Christopher Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News and knowledge capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 92-101, January.
    19. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    20. Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.
    21. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Portier, Franck, 1997. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-121, November.
    22. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    23. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    24. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    25. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2015. "Consumption heterogeneity, employment dynamics and macroeconomic co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 13-32.
    26. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.
    27. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    28. Birol Kanik & Wei Xiao, 2014. "News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 249-298, December.
    29. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    30. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    31. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2004. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 381-395, 04/05.
    33. anonymous, 2003. "Financial assimilation of immigrants conference," Profitwise, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Dec.
    34. Kosaka Michiru Sakane, 2013. "News-driven international business cycles," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-43, May.
    35. Stefan Avdjiev, 2016. "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 181-197, April.
    36. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    37. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    38. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 12213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2013. "Countercyclical Markups and News-Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 371-382, April.
    40. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2013. "Noncausal Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 447-481, June.
    41. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
    42. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    43. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kengo Nutahara, 2007. "Collateralized capital and news-driven cycles," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-9.
    44. Joseph Zeira, 1994. "Informational Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 31-44.
    45. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
    46. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    47. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
    48. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
    49. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
    50. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co-movement," NBER Working Papers 15561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Pengfei Wang, 2012. "Understanding Expectation‐Driven Fluctuations: A Labor‐Market Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 487-506, March.
    52. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    53. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    54. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2014. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2320-2367, August.
    55. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2407, CESifo.
    56. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    57. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1993. "Consumption and the Recession of 1990-1991," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 270-274, May.
    58. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    59. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    60. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
    61. Pietro Cova & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci & Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "New Shocks, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/284, International Monetary Fund.
    62. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Expectation driven business cycles with limited enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 300-303.
    63. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    64. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    65. Guo, Jang-Ting & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana & Weder, Mark, 2015. "News about aggregate demand and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 83-96.
    66. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    67. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    68. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-658, June.
    69. Jason G. Cummins & Giovanni L. Violante, 2002. "Investment-Specific Technical Change in the US (1947-2000): Measurement and Macroeconomic Consequences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 243-284, April.
    70. Lanne Markku & Saikkonen Pentti, 2011. "Noncausal Autoregressions for Economic Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, October.
    71. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    72. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    73. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
    76. Stéphane Auray & Paul Gomme & Shen Guo, 2013. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Pigou Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 455-473, May.
    77. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2009. "Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations," Harvard Business School Working Papers 09-134, Harvard Business School.
    78. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Inaba, Masaru, 2012. "Collateral Constraint And News-Driven Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 752-776, November.
    79. J. Baron & J. Schmidt, 2014. "Technological Standardization, Endogenous Productivity and Transitory Dynamics," Working papers 503, Banque de France.
    80. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
    81. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
    82. Collard, David, 1996. "Pigou and Modern Business Cycle Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 912-924, July.
    83. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    84. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2011. "Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9621.
    85. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2010. "Costly Labor Reallocation, Non-Separable Preferences, and Expectation Driven Business Cycles," Departmental Working Papers 2010-05, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    86. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30.
    87. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
    88. Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-21.
    89. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    90. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011. "Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-1179, June.
    91. Haichao Fan & Zhiwei Xu, 2014. "Firm dynamics in news-driven business cycles: the role of endogenous survival rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 1767-1777, May.
    92. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    93. Milani, Fabio & Rajbhandari, Ashish, 2020. "Observed expectations, news shocks, and the business cycle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 95-118.
    94. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    95. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    96. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    97. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
    98. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    99. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a New Keynesian example," Kiel Working Papers 1507, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    100. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    101. Bernd Lucke, 2013. "Testing the technology interpretation of news shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-13, January.
    102. Jinnai, Ryo, 2013. "News shocks and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 176-179.
    103. Hall, Robert E, 1993. "Macro Theory and the Recession of 1990-1991," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 275-279, May.
    104. Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2013. "An expectations-driven interpretation of the “Great Recession”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 391-407.
    105. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2013. "Financial frictions on capital allocation: A transmission mechanism of TFP fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 683-703.
    106. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    107. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    108. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    109. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
    110. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    111. Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "A Note on Information Flows and Identification of News Shocks Models," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(1), pages 28-38.
    112. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    113. Crouzet, Nicolas & Oh, Hyunseung, 2016. "What do inventories tell us about news-driven business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 49-66.
    114. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    115. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2013. "News shocks, nonfundamentalness and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 17-19.
    116. Féve, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 919-932.
    117. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-144, May.
    118. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    119. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2013. "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1352-1367, October.
    120. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    121. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    122. Per Krusell & Alisdair McKay, 2010. "News shocks and business cycles," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(4Q), pages 373-397.
    123. Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    124. Șerban Georgescu, 2012. "Japan," Conjunctura economiei mondiale / World Economic Studies, Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy.
    125. Hammad Qureshi, 2009. "News Shocks and Learning-by-doing," Working Papers 09-06, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    126. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-652, June.
    127. Guo Shen, 2011. "News Shocks and the External Finance Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    128. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2007. "Investment adjustment costs: evidence from UK and US industries," Bank of England working papers 332, Bank of England.
    129. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927.
    130. Jang-Ting Guo & Anca-Ioana Sirbu & Richard M.H. Suen, 2012. "On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 8(3), pages 313-319, September.
    131. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    132. Jermann, Urban J. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2007. "Stock market boom and the productivity gains of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 413-432, March.
    133. Guido Lorenzoni, 2011. "News and Aggregate Demand Shocks," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 537-557, September.
    134. Sorge, Marco M., 2012. "News shocks or parametric indeterminacy? An observational equivalence result in linear rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-200.
    135. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
    136. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "News versus sunspot shocks in a New Keynesian model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-27.
    137. Paul Beaudry & Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier, 2011. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, January.
    138. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Investment‐Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1443-1464, October.
    139. Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012. "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 253-288, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    140. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    141. Patrick Bunk, 2011. "News-driven Business Cycles in SVARs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    142. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    143. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-1085, September.
    144. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Comment on "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 457-474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    145. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Equally shocking news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 866-869.
    146. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 517-536, December.
    147. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    148. Wouter J. Den Haan & Matija Lozej, 2011. "Pigou Cycles in Closed and Open Economies with Matching Frictions," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 193-234.
    149. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "News and Financial Intermediation in Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 514-530, July.
    150. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019.
    151. Guo, Shen, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Expectation Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1928, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    152. Rodriguez Mora, Jose V. & Schulstad, Paul, 2007. "The effect of GNP announcements on fluctuations of GNP growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1922-1940, November.
    153. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "News and Sectoral Comovement," KOF Working papers 07-183, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    154. Collard, David A, 1983. "Pigou on Expectations and the Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(37), pages 411-414, June.
    155. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    156. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    157. Shackle,G. L. S., 2012. "Expectation in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107629141.
    158. Ippei Fujiwara, 2008. "Growth Expectation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-21, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    159. Perendia, George & Tsoukis, Chris, 2012. "The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 25, CEPREMAP.
    160. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    161. Dupor, Bill & Mehkari, M. Saif, 2014. "The analytics of technology news shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 392-427.
    162. Lucke, Bernd, 2010. "Identification and overidentification in SVECMs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 318-321, September.
    163. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    164. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    165. Stefano Eusepi*, 2009. "On expectations‐driven business cycles in economies with production externalities," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 9-23, March.
    166. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. ""Irrational exuberance" in the Pigou cycle under collateral constraints," Discussion papers 06015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    167. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    168. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Miyazawa, Kensuke & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 292-304.
    169. Franck Portier, 2006. "Comment ‘A “News” View Of Japan'S Lost Decade’: Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 345-357, June.
    170. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    171. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Corrigendum: Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 283-283, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.
    4. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    5. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    6. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Intersectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Comovement, and News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 77-114, February.
    7. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and financial intermediation in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations," MPRA Paper 38986, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2012.
    8. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    9. Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
    10. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    11. Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2015. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 225-264.
    13. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    14. Liao, Shian-Yu & Chen, Been-Lon, 2023. "News shocks to investment-specific technology in business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-89.
    16. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
    18. Milani, Fabio & Rajbhandari, Ashish, 2020. "Observed expectations, news shocks, and the business cycle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 95-118.
    19. Stefan Avdjiev, 2016. "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 181-197, April.
    20. Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2019. "Sentiments in SVARs," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 877-896.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Expectations; News; Pigou; Recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.