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Escaping Nash and volatile inflation

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  • Martin Ellison
  • Tony Yates

Abstract

Why is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the 1970s? This paper suggests that the United Kingdom, United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story proposed by Tom Sargent in The conquest of American inflation, where the fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to the changing beliefs informing monetary policy. To explain the escape in inflation volatility, we unwind one of Sargent’s simplifications and allow the monetary authority to react to some of the shocks in the economy. In this new model, a revised account of recent history is that when the evidence turned against the existence of a long-run inflation-output trade-off in the 1980s there was an escape from high inflation, but the authorities were also persuaded to stop using changes in inflation to offset shocks. Inflation and inflation volatility therefore escaped in tandem. Our analysis also sheds some light on why the escape in inflation occurred at the time it did. Our model, like the Sargent model it derives from, omits the revolution in institutional design and understanding that underpins monetary policy. So the gloomy predictions for the future derived from a literal reading of it are likely to be unfounded.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 330.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:330

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  1. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0478, European Central Bank.
  3. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  4. Reis Ricardo, 2003. "Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, September.
  5. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
  6. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1993. "Bayesian economists ... Bayesian agents : An alternative approach to optimal learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 355-383, May.
  8. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
  9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  10. Bruce McGough, 2006. "Shocking Escapes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 507-528, 04.
  11. Andrea Gerali & Francesco Lippi, 2002. "On the 'conquest' of inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Cited by:
  1. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Kolyuzhnov, Dmitri & Bogomolova, Anna & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2014. "Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 161-183.
  4. Rhys Bidder & Kalin Nikolov & Tony Yates, . " Self-confirming Inflation Persistence," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0908, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

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