Escaping Volatile Inflation
AbstractWhy has inflation been so stable in developed economies since the early 1990s? In this paper, we answer that the United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story proposed by Tom Sargent in "The Conquest of American Inflation", where the fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to changing government beliefs. To explain the escape in inflation volatility, we unwind one of Sargent's simplifications and allow the government to react to some of the shocks in the economy. In this case, when government beliefs turned against the Phillips curve in the 1980s they not only led to an escape from high inflation, but also stopped government using changes in inflation to offset shocks. Inflation and inflation volatility therefore escaped in tandem. Our analysis also sheds some light on why the escape in inflation occurred at the time it did. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008.
"Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research,"
CDMA Working Paper Series
200802, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland.
- Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006.
"Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Barnett, Alina & Ellison, Martin, 2012.
"Learning by disinflating,"
Research Discussion Papers
10/2012, Bank of Finland.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011.
"Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
- Mitra , Kaushik & Evans , George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2011.
"Policy change and learning in the RBC model,"
Research Discussion Papers
22/2011, Bank of Finland.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Rhys Bidder & Kalin Nikolov & Tony Yates, . " Self-confirming Inflation Persistence," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0908, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.