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Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off

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Author Info
William Branch () (Economics University of California, Irvine)
John Carlson
George W. Evans
Bruce McGough

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Abstract

This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss function that depends on expected forecast errors and information costs. Endogenous inattention is a Nash equilibrium in the information processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations, which decreases output volatility. If the indirect effect dominates then the usual trade-off between output and price volatility breaks down. This provides a potential explanation for the `Great Moderation' that began in the 1980's

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 106.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:106

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Related research
Keywords: optimal policy; expectations; adaptive learning;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-6, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alberto Locarno, 2006. "Imperfect knowledge, adaptive learning and the bias against activist monetary policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 590, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Switch, the Taylor Curve, and the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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