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Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence

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Author Info
Fabio Milani () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

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Abstract

This paper presents an estimated model with learning and provides evidence that learning can improve the fit of popular monetary DSGE models and endogenously generate realistic levels of persistence. The paper starts with an agnostic view, developing a model that nests learning and some of the structural sources of persistence, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence of macroeconomic variables. I estimate the model by likelihood-based Bayesian methods, which allow the estimation of the learning gain coefficient jointly with the "deep" parameters of the economy. The empirical results show that when learning replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This ?nding suggests that persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the specification with learning fits significantly better than does the specification with rational expectations. Finally, if learning rather than mechanical sources of persistence provides a more appropriate representation of the economy, the implied optimal policy will be different. The policymaker will also incur substantial costs from misspecifying private expectations formation.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 050608.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:050608

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Related research
Keywords: Persistence; Constant-gain learning; Expectations; Habit formation in consumption; Inflation inertia; Phillips curve; Bayesian econometrics; New-Keynesian model.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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