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Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle

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Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie
Uribe, Martín

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Abstract

This Paper identifies optimal interest-rate rules within a rich, dynamic, general equilibrium model that has been shown to account well for observed aggregate dynamics in the post-war United States. We perform policy evaluations based on second-order accurate approximations to conditional and unconditional expected welfare. We require that interest-rate rules be operational, in the sense that they include as arguments only a few readily observable macroeconomic indicators and respect the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that the optimal operational monetary policy is a real-interest-rate targeting rule. That is, an interest-rate feedback rule featuring a unit inflation coefficient, a mute response to output, and no interest-rate smoothing. Contrary to existing studies, we find a significant degree of optimal inflation volatility. A key factor driving this result is the assumption of indexation to past inflation. Under indexation to long-run inflation the optimal inflation volatility is close to zero. Finally, we show that initial conditions matter for welfare rankings of policies.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4654.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4654

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; inflation stabilization; monetary policy evaluation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ester Faia, 2009. "Oligopolistic Competition and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anton Nakov, 2008. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 73-127, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend inflation, Taylor principle and indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 708, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in an Estimated Model with Labour Market Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Stéphane Adjemian & Stéphane Moyen, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in an estimated DSGE for the euro area," Working Paper Series 803, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Productive Government Expenditure in Monetary Business Cycle Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-053/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Pablo A. Guerron, 2007. "The Welfare Costs of Inflation in a Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Model," Working Paper Series 013, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Working Papers 279, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ester Faia, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy rules with labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 698, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Federico di Pace, 2008. "Revisiting the Comovement Puzzle: the Input-Output Structure as an Additional Solution," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0807, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Andrea Colciago, 2006. "Sticky wages and rule of thumb consumers," Working Papers 98, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in a medium-scale macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 612, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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