Evaluating Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models using Likelihood
AbstractThis paper develops a method that uses a likelihood approach to directly compare two or more non-nested dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is shown how DSGE models can be compared across the whole sample and how this measure can be decomposed across individual observations thus allowing models to be compared across any sub-sample of the data. The method is applied to the problem of determining whether the technology shock process in a standard Real Business Cycle model should consist of permanent or temporary, albeit persistent, shocks. Overall, a permanent shock model has a better prediction performance than the temporary shock model. However, the model with the temporary shock performs much better for the part of the sample that includes the most of the 1980's and the 1990's.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 200211.
Date of creation: 17 Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Jersey Hall - 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1248
Phone: (732) 932-7482
Fax: (732) 932-7416
Web page: http://snde.rutgers.edu/Rutgers/wp/rutgers-wplist.html
More information through EDIRC
Markov chain Monte Carlo; Model Evaluation; Real Business Cycles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Milani, Fabio, 2007.
"Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.