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Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning

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  • Marcet, A.
  • Nicolini, J.P.

Abstract

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning is able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros- in its series Papers with number 9721.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:cemfdt:9721

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Postal: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros. Casado del Alisal, 5-28014 Madrid, Spain.
Phone: 914290551
Fax: 914291056
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Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
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Keywords: INFLATION ; PRICES ; LEARNING;

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References

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  1. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1993. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage," Working Papers 93-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1996. "Ruling out speculative hyperinflations The role of the government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 791-809, May.
  4. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1995. "Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play," Scholarly Articles 3198694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  6. David Easley & Aldo Rustichini, 1999. "Choice without Beliefs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1157-1184, September.
  7. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
  8. Arifovic, Jasmina & Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1997. " The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 185-209, July.
  9. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317.
  10. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
  11. Zvi Eckstein & Leonardo Leiderman, 1991. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Kiguel, Miguel A & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1995. "Seigniorage and Inflation: The Case of Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 672-82, August.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Scholarly Articles 12491027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
  16. M. Funke & S. Hall & M. Solá, 1993. "Rational bubbles during Polland’s hiperinflation: implications and empirical evidence," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1193, Department of Economics - dECON.
  17. Hildegart Ahumada & Alfredo Canavese & Pablo Sanguinetti & Walter Sosa Escudero, 1993. "Efectos distributivos del impuesto inflacionario: una estimación para el caso argentino," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 329-383, July-Dece.
  18. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  20. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, December.
  21. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  23. Bental, B. & Eckstein, Z., 1995. "A Neoclassical Interpretation of Inflation and Stabilization in Israel," Papers 28-95, Tel Aviv.
  24. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  25. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:156-82 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. [??]A prophecy that misread could have been...
    by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-11-05 08:00:00
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