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Learning Hyperinflations

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Author Info
Atanas Christev (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh)

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Abstract

Emprical studies of hyperinflations reveal that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to hold. To address this issue, we study a model of hyperinflation and learning in an attempt to better understand the volatility in movements of expectations, money, and prices. The findings surprisingly imply that the dynamics under neural network learning appear to support the outcome achieved under least squares learning reported in the earlier literature. Relaxing the assumption that inflationary expectations are rational, however, is essential since it improves the fit of the model to actual data from episodes of severe hyperinflation. Simulations provide ample evidence that if equilibrium in the model exists, then the inflation rate converges to the low inflation rational expectations equilibrium. This suggests a classical result: a permanent increase in the government deficit raises the stationary inflation rate (Marcet and Sargent, 1989)

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 126.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:126

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Related research
Keywords: Hyperinflation; Learning; Rational Expectations Equlibria; Neural Networks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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References listed on IDEAS
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  7. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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