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Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions

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  • James Bullard
  • Alison Butler

Abstract

This survey paper discusses the policy implications that can be expected from the recent research on nonlinearity and chaos in economic models. Expected policy implications are interpreted as a driving force behind the recent proliferation of research in this area. In general, it appears that no new justification for policy intervention is developed in models of endogenous fluctuations, although this conclusion depends in part on the definition of equilibrium. When justified, however, policy tends to be very effective in these models.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1991/91-002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1991-002.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Journal , vol. 103, pp. 849-867 (July 1993)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1991-002

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Economic stabilization;

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References

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  1. Ramsey, J.B. & Sayers, C.L. & Rothman, P., 1988. "The Statistical Properties Of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," Papers 15, Houston - Department of Economics.
  2. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005.
  3. Friedman, Milton, 1971. "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 846-56, July-Aug..
  4. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
  5. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  6. Baumol, William J. & Benhabib, Jess, 1987. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Working Papers 87-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Becker, Robert A & Foias, Ciprian, 1994. "The Local Bifurcation of Ramsey Equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 719-44, August.
  8. Alison Butler, 1990. "A methodological approach to chaos: are economists missing the point?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 36-48.
  9. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  10. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  12. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Equilibrium Models of Endogenous Fluctuations: an Introduction," NBER Working Papers 3360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
  14. Kelsey, David, 1988. "The Economics of Chaos or the Chaos of Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
  15. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  16. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  17. repec:att:wimass:9117 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
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Cited by:
  1. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & Demitre Serletis, 2012. "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201238, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  2. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 127, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Gomes, Orlando, 2008. "Too much of a good thing: Endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 933-945, September.
  5. Franz Alonso Hamann S., 1996. "Puede Explicarse El Precio Externo Del Café Con Un Modelo Econometrico No Lineal?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003408, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 633-664, November.
  7. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.

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