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Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?

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Author Info
Óscar J. Arce () (Banco de España)
Abstract

Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of monetization observed after the end of hyperinflations, I provide a cash-and-credit model in which the use of money exhibits some persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. This feature helps to account for the main stylized facts of extreme hyperinflations and reconcile some conflicting views on their causes, development and end without departing from rational expectations. Unlike the existing literature, I show that when hysteresis is possible, an orthodox fiscal-monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may not be sufficient to prevent it.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0607e.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0607.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0607

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Related research
Keywords: hyperinflation; fiscal-monetary reform; multiple equilibria; hysteresis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bental, Benjamin & Eckstein, Zvi, 1990. "The Dynamics of Inflation with Constant Deficit under Expected Regime Change," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1245-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sergey Pekarski, 2007. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Working Papers WP13_2007_12, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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