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Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations

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  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja

Abstract

This paper considers fluctuations and policy in an economic model with multiple steady states due to a production externality. In the absence of policy changes, the driving forces generating fluctuations are exogenous random productivity shocks. However, because there are multiple steady states, large productivity shocks can shift the economy between high-and low- level equilibria, providing an additional endogenous source of fluctuations. The scope for macroeconomic policy is large since changes in policy can also shift the economy between equilibria. In this setting macroeconomic policy exhibits hysteresis (irreversibilities) and threshold effects and can be used to eliminate endogenous fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:3-13:n:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    2. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. Blasques, Francisco & Bräuning, Falk & Lelyveld, Iman van, 2018. "A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 310-342.
    4. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Learning with bounded memory in stochastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1437-1457, June.
    6. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Information weighting under least squares learning," CAMA Working Papers 2020-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
    8. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    9. Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Is more data better?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 263-272, February.
    10. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
    11. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2013. "Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 806-820.
    12. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    13. Williams, Noah, 2022. "Learning and equilibrium transitions: Stochastic stability in discounted stochastic fictitious play," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2005. "Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High Inflation Economies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 452-479, April.
    15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Ellis, Christopher J., 1998. "Multiple Equilibria and Rules of Thumb," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-54, January.
    17. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 979-1006.
    18. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Tan, Kang Yong, 2009. "Learning and international transmission of shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1052, September.
    19. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    20. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.
    21. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    22. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.

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    Keywords

    Econometric models; Business cycles;

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