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Author Info
Mitra, K.

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Abstract

Convention wisdom usually suggests that agents should use all the data they have to make the best possible prediction. In this paper it is shown that agents may sometimes be able to make better predictions by throwing away data. The optimality criterion agents adopt is the mean squared criterion.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics in its series University of Helsinki, Department of Economics with number 452.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:helsec:452

Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Helsinki; Department of Economics, P.O.Box 54 (Unioninkatu 37) FIN-00014 Helsingin Yliopisto
Phone: +358 9 191 8897
Fax: +358 9 191 8877
Email:
Web page: http://www.valt.helsinki.fi/katal/
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Related research
Keywords: TESTING ; SIMULATION ; PROJECTIONS ; INFORMATION ; PRICES;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Cars Hommes & Gerhard Sorger, 1997. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    Other versions:
  4. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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