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Near-Rational Exuberance

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  • James Bullard
  • George Evans

Abstract

We study how the use of judgement or add-factors in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which "exuberance equilibria" exist in standard macroeconomic environments. These equilibria may display sunspot-like behavior, but without a requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is indeterminate. We suggest ways in which monetary policymakers might avoid unintended outcomes by adjusting policy to minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2004 Meeting Papers with number 465.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:465

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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Keywords: learning; judgement; indeterminacy; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  2. Roger Lagunoff & Stacey L. Schreft, 1999. "Financial Fragility with Rational and Irrational Exuberance," Macroeconomics 9904011, EconWPA.
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgement: Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
  7. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
  8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2000. "Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
  10. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  13. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2008. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," Working Papers 08-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
  4. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Bounded memory, overparameterized forecast rules, and instability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 129-135, February.
  5. Angelini, Elena & Boissay, Frédéric & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0646, European Central Bank.
  6. Hellwig, Christian & Veldkamp, Laura, 2007. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.

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