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Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model

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  • Bernasconi, Michele
  • Kirchkamp, Oliver

Abstract

We study experiments of an overlapping generations model where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. We use a new experimental setup that allows us to observe more details of the process of expectation forming and separate this process from the actual saving process. In contrast to experimental findings by Lim, Prescott, Sunder; Marimon, Spear, Sunder; and Marimon, Sunder we find that (1) agents do not form first-order adaptive expectations; (2) subjects ‘over-save’ for precautionary reasons; as a result (3) the so-called Friedman conjecture holds, i.e. monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility of inflation in the experiment. This may generate important policy trade-offs between monetary regimes. We discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies.
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  • Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 315-343, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:46:y:2000:i:2:p:315-343
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    1. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 315-343, October.
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    5. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    6. Marimon Ramon & Spear Stephen E. & Sunder Shyam, 1993. "Expectationally Driven Market Volatility: An Experimental Study," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 74-103, October.
    7. Thomas Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1987. "Inflation and the Government Budget Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), Economic Policy in Theory and Practice, chapter 5, pages 170-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    21. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 1998. "Why monetary policy matters --- An experimental study of saving, inflation and monetary policies in an overlapping generations model," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-47, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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