AbstractEmprical studies of hyperinflations reveal that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to hold. To address this issue, we study a model of hyperinflation and learning in an attempt to better understand the volatility in movements of expectations, money, and prices. The findings surprisingly imply that the dynamics under neural network learning appear to support the outcome achieved under least squares learning reported in the earlier literature. Relaxing the assumption that inflationary expectations are rational, however, is essential since it improves the fit of the model to actual data from episodes of severe hyperinflation. Simulations provide ample evidence that if equilibrium in the model exists, then the inflation rate converges to the low inflation rational expectations equilibrium. This suggests a classical result: a permanent increase in the government deficit raises the stationary inflation rate (Marcet and Sargent, 1989)
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 475.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-07-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2006-07-15 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heinemann, Maik, 2000. "Adaptive learning of rational expectations using neural networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1007-1026, June.
- Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996.
"Hyperinflation and Stabilization: Cagan Revisited,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
- Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
- Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998.
"Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model,"
University of Helsinki, Department of Economics
438, Department of Economics.
- Bullard, James & Butler, Alison, 1993.
"Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 849-67, July.
- James Bullard & Alison Butler, 1992. "Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions," Working Papers 1991-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2002.
"Modern Hyper- and High Inflations,"
IMF Working Papers
02/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998.
"Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44, January.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
- Barucci, Emilio, 2001. "Fading memory learning in a class of forward-looking models with an application to hyperinflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 233-252, April.
- Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997.
"Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning,"
9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
- Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979.
"The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-58, October.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1977. "The Demand for Money During Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1976. "The demand for money during hyperinflations under rational expectations: II," Working Papers 60, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2000. "Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time-dependence, with applications to adaptive learning," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 717-725.
- Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993.
"Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: Experimental evidence,"
Economics Working Papers
25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September.
- Kuan, Chung-Ming & White, Halbert, 1994. "Adaptive Learning with Nonlinear Dynamics Driven by Dependent Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1087-1114, September.
- Chung-Ming Kuan, 2006. "Artificial Neural Networks," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 06-A010, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Sachs, Jeffrey, 1987. "The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 279-83, May.
- James Bullard, 1991.
1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Webb, Steven B., 1986. "Fiscal News and Inflationary Expectations in Germany after World War I," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(03), pages 769-794, September.
- Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November.
- Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1988. "The Fate of Systems with "Adaptive" Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 168-72, May.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
- Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December.
- Bruno, M., 1991. "High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy," Princeton Studies in International Economics 183, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.