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Adaptive learning and monetary policy design

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  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja

Abstract

We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under learning. Appropriately designed expectations-based rules can yield optimal rational expectations (REs) equilibria that are both determinate and stable under learning. Some simple instrument rules and approximate targeting rules also have these desirable properties. We discuss various complications in implementing optimal policy, including the observability of key variables and the required knowledge of structural parameters. An additional issue that we take up concerns the implications of expectation shocks not arising from transitional learning effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1045-1084

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:2003:p:1045-1084

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Interest rates;

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References

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  1. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/13, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  2. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, 08.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
  6. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  10. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004.
  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  15. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  17. Evans, G W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 3564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Working Paper Series 0127, European Central Bank.
  19. Kaushik Mitra, . "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York.
  20. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans, 2011. "Notes on Agents¡¯ Behavioral Rules Under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy," CDMA Working Paper Series 201102, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  21. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  22. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
  23. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
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