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Learning and the central bank

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Author Info
Charles T. Carlstrom
Timothy S. Fuerst

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Abstract

It is well known that sunspot equilibria may arise under an interest-rate operating procedure in which the central bank varies the nominal rate with movements in future inflation (a forward-looking Taylor rule). This paper demonstrates that these sunspot equilibria may be learnable in the sense of E-stability.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0117.

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Length: 1-23
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0117

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Related research
Keywords: Banks and banking; Central ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  5. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Models Without Money," NBER Working Papers 8174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Money growth rules and price level determinacy," Working Paper 0010, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2008. "Labor market search and interest rate policy," Research Working Paper RWP 08-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jagjit Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "Sunspots and Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Orlando Gomes & Vivaldo M. Mendes & Diana A. Mendes, 2007. "The Dynamics of Learning in Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers ercwp2008, ISCTE, UNIDE, Economics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 10272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary policy; expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 124, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with nternal Central Bank forecasting," Working Paper Series 127, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Christian Jensen, 2006. "Expectations, Learning, and Discretionary Policymaking," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Taylor rules in a model that satisfies the natural rate hypothesis," Working Paper 0116, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Departmental Working Papers 200109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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