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Taylor rules in a model that satisfies the natural rate hypothesis

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

The authors analyze the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest-rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce real indeterminacy into the economy. They conduct this analysis in a flexible price economy and a sticky price model that satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. A necessary and sufficient condition for real determinacy in the sticky price model is that there must be nominal and real determinacy in the corresponding flexible price model. This arises if and only if the Taylor rule responds aggressively to lagged inflation rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0116.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0116

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Interest rates;

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References

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  1. Charles Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 70, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October.
  3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  7. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
  9. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/13, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  16. Bill Dupor, 2000. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0007, Econometric Society.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
  18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  19. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2010. "Short and long interest rate targets," Working Papers 680, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2008. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Teles, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Single Instrument Feedback Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.
  6. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
  8. Fiorella De Fiore & Zheng Liu, 2003. "Openness and Equilibrium Determinacy under Interest Rate Rules," Emory Economics 0310, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).

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